Supply – If almost all regions are expected to contribute to the growth in natural gas production in the next five years, half of the net increase in supply comes from North America and the Middle East. Future growth in the industry sector, which constitutes the main driver of incremental gas demand in both countries, will however highly depend on the pace of economic recovery, both for domestic and export markets for industrial goods. In spite of the current economic headwinds and uncertainty, natural gas still benefits from strong policy support in both countries, with ongoing reforms to increase the role of gas in the energy mix. While the prospects of natural gas remain strong for these two markets, the outlook is highly dependent on China’s and India’s future policy direction and recovery path in the post-crisis environment. The Asia Pacific region accounts for over half of incremental global gas consumption in the coming years, driven principally by the development of gas in China and India. This forecast expects an average growth rate of 1.5% per year during this period. The impact of the 2020 crisis is, however, expected to have repercussions on the medium-term growth potential, resulting in about 75 bcm of lost growth over the forecast period, 2019 to 2025. Demand - After a 4% drop in 2020, natural gas demand is expected to progressively recover in 2021 as consumption returns close to its pre-crisis level in mature markets, while emerging markets benefit from economic rebound and lower natural gas prices.
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